GB Household Energy Bill Forecast
Independent analysis of energy costs to 2040, combining Ofgem price cap data, Cornwall Insight projections, and DESNZ policy scenarios.
Current Annual Bill
£1,758
£24 vs last quarter
Pre-Crisis Level
£1,277
Q4 2021 baseline
2030 Forecast
£1,450
-17% from current
Return to Normal
Late 2030s
Cornwall Insight
Key Finding
Bills remain 45% above pre-crisis levels. Cornwall Insight forecasts power prices will not return to pre-2022 levels until the late 2030s, driven by electrification demand and infrastructure investment requirements.
Typical dual-fuel household (2,700 kWh elec / 11,500 kWh gas)
Cornwall Insight: Below £100/MWh by 2028, continued decline to 2040
| Year | Central (£) | Low (£) | High (£) | Wholesale (£/MWh) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1,710 | 1,620 | 1,850 | 85 | Cornwall Insight Q4 2023 outlook |
| 2027 | 1,580 | 1,450 | 1,750 | 78 | Declining wholesale, increased renewables |
| 2028 | 1,520 | 1,380 | 1,720 | 72 | Below £100/MWh wholesale target |
| 2029 | 1,480 | 1,320 | 1,700 | 68 | Clean Power 2030 transition |
| 2030 | 1,450 | 1,280 | 1,680 | 65 | Gov target: £300 below current |
| 2031 | 1,420 | 1,250 | 1,650 | 62 | Post Clean Power 2030 |
| 2032 | 1,400 | 1,220 | 1,640 | 60 | Network investment costs peak |
| 2033 | 1,380 | 1,200 | 1,620 | 58 | Sizewell C online (partial) |
| 2034 | 1,350 | 1,180 | 1,600 | 55 | Increasing storage capacity |
| 2035 | 1,320 | 1,150 | 1,580 | 52 | Near net-zero power sector |
| 2036 | 1,300 | 1,130 | 1,560 | 50 | Hydrogen blending begins |
| 2037 | 1,280 | 1,120 | 1,540 | 48 | Return toward pre-2022 levels |
| 2038 | 1,260 | 1,100 | 1,520 | 46 | Cornwall: pre-2022 by late 2030s |
| 2039 | 1,250 | 1,090 | 1,500 | 45 | Mature renewable system |
| 2040 | 1,240 | 1,080 | 1,480 | 44 | Long-term equilibrium |
Data Sources & Methodology
Quarterly data: Ofgem Price Cap announcements. Long-term forecasts: Cornwall Insight GB Power Market Outlook, DESNZ Energy & Emissions Projections, Clean Power 2030 Action Plan. See full methodology for details.