Household electricity / 2030 outlook
Cheaper power. A more expensive system.
A public bottom-up model suggests wholesale electricity costs keep falling, but network investment and support schemes more than offset the saving by 2030.
This is a model
Real 2025 pounds for a household using 3.1 MWh of electricity a year. It is not the Ofgem dual-fuel price cap.
The bill falls first, then climbs
The central projection bottoms out in 2027/28 before network and generation-support costs pull it higher.
2025 financial year to date
£969
Modelled electricity bill, real £2025
Low point · 2027/28
£925
About 5% below 2025
2030/31
£1,059
Central model projection
Real change by 2030
+9%
Versus the 2025 modelled bill
Wholesale savings are swallowed by system costs
Rounded component values from the model show where the pressure moves between 2025 and 2030/31.
Wholesale falls by £51. Network charges rise by about £130.
Renewables Obligation costs fall sharply under the model's Treasury-funding assumption. Contracts for Difference, balancing costs, Sizewell C and other new schemes move the other way.
| Component | 2025 FYTD | 2030/31 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale electricity | £320 | £269 | −£51 |
| Transmission network | £52 | £105 | +£53 |
| Balancing the system | £43 | £91 | +£48 |
| Distribution network | £117 | £146 | +£29 |
| Renewables Obligation | £102 | £18 | −£84 |
| Feed-in Tariffs | £23 | £26 | +£3 |
| Contracts for Difference | £35 | £79 | +£44 |
| Capacity Market | £28 | £45 | +£17 |
| Supplier costs and margin | £135 | £149 | +£14 |
| Warm Home Discount | £16 | £20 | +£4 |
| Smart-meter charge | £20 | £20 | −£0 |
| New levies and schemes | £7 | £38 | +£31 |
| VAT | £46 | £50 | +£4 |
What would change the answer
The model is transparent about the places where policy and market uncertainty matter most.
Gas and wholesale power prices
Global gas markets still have a large influence on the wholesale line.
Network investment and constraint costs
RIIO-3 determinations, Clean Power 2030 distribution spending and NESO constraint costs drive much of the increase.
Unpriced future schemes
Hydrogen-to-power and long-duration storage are marked TBD in the source, so they are not fully represented.
Policy choices
Treasury funding, industry exemptions and the timing of Sizewell C or carbon-capture projects can move costs between taxpayers and bills.
Source model
This page uses the model directly and preserves its requested attribution.
The author states that estimates are made in good faith from a neutral view of current policy and necessarily carry substantial uncertainty. Components are rounded, so displayed rows may not sum exactly to the published total.